Know Your Enemy: What Texas Football Must Do to Beat TCU

By Adam Sweeney

The 2015-16 Texas football season has felt a lot like a Taylor Swift album, as we have witnessed one heartbreak after another. But fret not, UT fans, because it’s a new day and with it comes an opportunity for Charlie Strong’s squad to knock off one of the titans of college football, the TCU Horned Frogs. What do the Longhorns have to do to feast on frog Saturday morning and end TCU’s 12-game winning streak? We’re here to drop the knowledge. It’s time to “Know your Enemy.”

It’s a trap!

UT’s overall progress as a team, combined with a last-gasp 55-52 win by the Horned Frogs over Texas Tech last week, is leading many to pick a Texas upset this week. Let’s push aside the fact that we are discussing a Texas win as an upset, which shouldn’t feel strange given the program’s recent history, but still does. Take off the TCU helmet decal and you, at this moment, are looking at a team that probably doesn’t deserve to be ranked in the top five of the AP Top 25 poll, even though the Horned Frogs are ranked second nationally in total offense. They are one tipped pass away from being an also-ran in the playoff discussion. Let’s watch that catch by Aaron Green for fun.

Now, let’s be clear. Many national title contenders prosper in nail-biter games. The 2009 Texas team did in the Big 12 Championship game versus Nebraska. Auburn won the famous “Kick Six” game in 2013 versus Alabama. Winning a close game against an “inferior” opponent doesn’t mean a team is weak. It can, however, display[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)] chinks in the team’s armor and TCU certainly has its share. The Frogs’ defense has been decimated by injuries, an early-morning Saturday start always is tough for players and fans, and Texas —despite two gut-punch losses —is steadily improving and out for blood. There is plenty of reason to believe Texas will win, right?

I’m here to do my best Admiral Ackbar impersonation. We have yet to see Texas put together a complete game. This is also a TCU Horned Frogs offense that has scored at least 55 points in three straight games, and there isn’t any indicator that the Horned Frogs are slowing down. If anything, last week was likely the trap game about which the TCU faithful has been worried. It would be very surprising to see the Frogs fall into a pit again. Will they win? We don’t know, but it looks like Texas will have to survive a shootout. What I am saying is that Texas may in fact be the team poised for a letdown. That’s right; it’s a trap in a trap!

The “Boy” Wonder

Senior quarterback Trevone Boykin shouldn’t be a stranger to Texas fans. Boykin led the Horned Frogs to a 48-10 win over Texas last Thanksgiving and he has been positioned as a Heisman contender, living up to the hype so far this season. He has thrown for 1,470 yards, good for third in the nation. He has thrown for a touchdown in 19 straight games and was named Davey O’Brien National Quarterback of the Week for his performance against Texas Tech, in which he produced a typical 485-yard passing game — no big deal.

Boykin, like every Big 12 quarterback, it seems, is a dual-threat quarterback who has improved more from his freshman season to now that almost any player at his position that I have ever watched. He is dynamic as both a passer and runner, and he doesn’t beat himself — unlike Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph last week.

Seeing Green

If you think the Horned Frogs are content to just throw the ball you are sadly mistaken. TCU ranks 23rd in the nation in rushing offense. Match that with Texas’ 104th-ranked run defense and you may say, to quote Scooby Doo, “ruh roh.”

Texas will have to stop senior running back Aaron Green, a transfer from Nebraska who is averaging nearly six yards a carry and ranks 21st nationally in rushing yards. The back is 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds, so he isn’t a bruiser, but he cuts hard and can read a hole as well as any back in college football. Do not sleep on him this week.

What’s Up, ‘Doc?’

Senior wideout Josh Doctson is a beast. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound wideout caught 18 receptions for a school-record 267 yards and three touchdowns last week against Texas Tech. That number of receptions tied a Big 12 record … and to put things into perspective, it was five more catches than Texas’ leading receiver, Daje Johnson, has all year. Doctson leads the Big 12 with 35 catches, 593 yards and six touchdowns, and is on pace to have the greatest season for a Big 12 receiver ever. EVER. Oh, and he also lit Texas up last year for 7 catches, 115 yards and a score.

What makes Doctson’s ascent more incredible is that that he wasn’t even rated as a top receiver coming out of high school. He started college at Wyoming, scoring his first touchdown vs. TCU, before coming home and walking on to the team. Those days seem long ago.

Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford didn’t hold back in praising Doctson.

“If I was Josh, I’d be jumping up and down,” Bedford said when asked how he should respond to facing Texas freshman corners Kris Boyd, Holton Hill and Davante Davis. Tell us how you really feel, Vance.

Truth be told, Doctson is a terrifying receiver who can stretch the field and likely will against a Texas team that is ranked 121st nationally in scrimmage plays of 10 or more yards (72 overall).

Getting Froggy

The Horned Frogs defense ranks 81st in the nation and looks nothing like the formidable units TCU has put together in recent years.

TCU will be playing just one of the top 10 tacklers from last season. At least eight defensive players are injured this week, and this is a young defense that is looking to improve each game. That last part should sound familiar to Texas fans.

TCU’s defense does get a bump up now that defensive end Mike Tuaua, who was suspended for TCU’s past three games after being arrested on felony robbery charges, will be available when the Horned Frogs take on Texas this Saturday.

There should be room to run against a unit that gives up 169.8 yards on the ground per game and has surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns.

The TCU receiver corps is bruised as well. The Frogs also are missing receiver Ty Slanina, who suffered a broken collarbone last week versus Texas Tech, and speed demon Kolby Listenbee is questionable for Saturday’s battle.

We already gave you stats on the TCU offense’s third down conversion efficiency. The Horned Frogs’ defense also is impressive at stopping teams on third down, sitting at 28th in the nation (teams convert only 29 percent overall).

Texas should get the benefit of some calls from the refs, or you would hope that would be the case after the “questionable” calls the officials laid down last week against Oklahoma State. TCU has been called for nearly eight penalties — 92nd in the nation — for 79.5 yards per game. The Horned Frogs’ opponents have been flagged an average of four times per game for an average of 39.0 penalty yards per game.

The Texas offense will have to put up points at a rate similar to its output against California to win this game, but I expect Texas assistant coach (and play caller) Jay Norvell to try to slow the game down in an attempt to keep Boykin and friends off the field. That is the right strategy because you’re not likely to beat TCU in a barnburner. Many Texas fans have asked for D’Onta Foreman to replace Johnathan Gray as the starting running back, but the numbers don’t support their request. Gray has rushed 38 times for 149 yards, a 3.9 yards-per-rush clip. Foreman? He has rushed 26 times for 99 yards, a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. At this moment Gray is the more versatile back and a far superior pass-catching back, so it makes sense for both to be utilized, with Gray in the lead.

If the Longhorns pull off the upset and give Strong his first signature win, it’s a near certainty that redshirt freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard will have duplicated the Heisman-esque effort he produced in his first start against Cal, when he accounted for 527 yards of total offense and rushed for three touchdowns. Let’s keep our ‘Horns up and our fingers crossed.