Know Your Enemy: What Texas must do to beat Iowa State

By Adam Sweeney

This is Adam Sweeney here, writing this preview in a kayak as I float down the flooded Barton Springs area of Austin. As we try to avoid the torrential downpour in ATX, the Texas Longhorns are brimming with optimism and trying to avoid an upset in their pursuit of bowl game eligibility. The Iowa State Cyclones have made their name in the Big 12 as a nemesis to Texas, starting in 2009 when they beat the then-No. 19 Longhorns in Austin, 28-21, and nearly knocking them off again in 2013 as Texas barely escaped with a 31-30 controversial win in Ames, Iowa … and let’s not forget the 48-45 thriller last season, in which Nick Rose kicked the game-winning field goal with 3 seconds left. This has been a series recently that is full of ghoulish gamesmanship for both teams.

The Longhorns aim to knock the spirit (get it? Because … Halloween) out of the 2-5 Cyclones on Saturday, and finally look like a team with swagger and identity. Meanwhile, Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads is fighting like Rick Grimes on The Walking Dead to save his job, a week after offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was turned into zombie food. We’re here to let you know how Halloween night can be a treat for Texas in this week’s “Know Your Enemy.”

The Lanning Strip

Senior quarterback Sam Richardson has lost his way, so Rhoads has handed the keys to redshirt sophomore Joel Lanning. The 6-foot-2, 230-pound quarterback [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)] filled in admirably by going 12-of-17 with 144 yards and three touchdown passes in the Cyclones’ 45-27 loss to No. 2 Baylor. He put some nice touch on two of the touchdown passes and also can do damage in a read-option look. It will be fun to see how he reacts to a Texas defense that has confidence, considering that Lanning only has roughly one game’s worth of college football experience under his belt.

If Texas can put pressure on the newcomer, then the Longhorns likely will be able to force him to cough up the ball a few times. For the Longhorns, who rank 12th nationally in turnover margin, that could be the difference between a win and a loss. Iowa State, meanwhile, is tied for 99th overall nationally in turnovers. Granted, that was with Richardson at the helm, but it’s not unreasonable to assume there still will be some jitters in Lanning’s first start. Texas has sacked the quarterback 11 times in the last two games, so it is reasonable to think they will get to Lanning this week.

The Warren Commission

Iowa State’s freshman running back Mike Warren is a playmaker. A recent addition to the watch list for the Doak Walker Award, which is given annually to the nation’s top college running back, Warren has rushed for at least 120 yards in four of his last five games, he leads all freshman running backs in college football with 797 yards, in spite of barely being featured at all in the Cyclones’ first two games of the season, and he could potentially put up big numbers against a Texas rushing defense that has given up 100-yard games to three running backs this season.

The Cyclones will want to protect Lanning and set him up for third-and-short situations, which means they will run often with both Warren and Lanning. It would not be surprising to see Iowa State run the ball over 60 times. The Longhorns can alter that game plan by getting points on the board early and shortening the field for Texas quarterback Jerrod Heard with a few long kick and punt returns, and the aforementioned forcing of turnovers.

Not All Losses are not Created Equal

We’re not claiming that Iowa State is in any way a national title contender, but take a closer look at the Cyclones’ schedule and it’s evident that they have wandered through Hell to get to 2-5. Check out the records of their previous opponents this season: Northern Iowa (3-4), Iowa (7-0), Toledo (7-0), Kansas (0-7), Texas Tech (5-3), TCU (7-0) and Baylor (7-0).

Iowa State’s defense, which is 113th in total defense out of 127 FBS schools, certainly can be blamed for some of the team’s downfall. But that 113th ranking gets exaggerated some by playing Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech. The three teams rank No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 in total offense, respectively, so inflation is to be expected. So it’s tough to tell exactly what to expect from this defense, but a rise toward the medium of college defenses feels more accurate.

We don’t expect Texas to underestimate the Cyclones, but we’re officially putting this game on “trap game” section. Strange things happen on Halloween and I’m not entirely convinced that this team is as bad as its record indicates.

Stay On Target

UT’s offense now has form to it and that form comes in gutting teams with the run. The Longhorns average 206.3 rushing yards per game. Iowa State’s defense is ranked 93rd nationally in rushing defense, giving up 187 yards on the ground a game. Those numbers indicate that there is no reason for Texas to change up its offensive strategy. If the Longhorns elect to pass, it should come out of play-action looks and bootlegs for Heard, who then can have the option to tuck the ball and run if nothing is available. There is nothing wrong with grinding out a win, especially one on the road. The Longhorns have rushed the ball more than 50 times in the last two games. Let’s make it a trifecta and call it a day, why don’t we?

Pier One

Dale Pierson is arguably the best defensive player in the Big 12. He already has 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss . The California junior college graduate will be public enemy No. 1 to a Texas offensive line that is starting to come together. Pierson is known as Sackmamba45 on Twitter, and is on the Ted Hendricks Award Midseason Watch List, awarded annually to the nation’s top defensive end. Let’s hope that Texas can cut the Mamba’s head off before it has a chance to strike.
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