In Series with Penchant for Blowouts, Can Longhorns Right Ship and Pull the Upset? | Horns Illustrated

 

Fox Sports broadcasters Gus Johnson and Charles Davis may want to get their blow-out material ready prior to kickoff of Saturday’s Texas-UCLA game.

One way or another, someone has gone on to a convincing win when Texas and UCLA have met in years past. Of the six previous meetings, only the first – back in 1970 – has been decided by less than 18 points. Texas won that battle 20-17 in Austin. For the rest, Texas holds wins by scores of 49-20 and 28-10. UCLA’s wins came by 34-12, 49-31 and – of course – 66-3. Those five games have been decided by an average of 30 points.

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So, will the next meeting between the Bruins and Longhorns buck the series trend? Online prediction maker Prediction Machine wrote in the Wall Street Journal this week that UCLA should win by 12 points, less than the traditional margin in this game, but comfortably.

“According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, UCLA wins on average 69% of the time and by an average score of 29-17,” the story reads.

But the actual game won’t be played in the cyber-sphere, thankfully for Texas. It will be played in quasi-neutral site AT&T Stadium in Arlington, where the predominant color of fans should skew orange rather than blue. But given how Texas played at home against BYU, will that matter?

UCLA opened the season ranked in the top 10, a dark horse favorite of many to reach the four-team playoff. Led by Heisman candidate Brett Hundley, the Bruins have won both of their games but have underwhelmed in wins over Virginia and Memphis.

In the Los Angeles Times this week, Chris Foster reported UCLA may be struggling to deal with expectations, whether internal or external, but that those in charge in Westwood feel the Bruins are on the right track.

“I think we were just tight,” Foster quoted UCLA head coach Jim Mora saying. “I think that we let the outside expectations become a little bit of a burden to us. I said after the first game that we were trying to be too perfect. I still felt it a little that second game, then felt it start to relieve itself a little bit. I feel like we’re back to where we need to be. So, we’ll see if I’m wrong or right.”

Texas, eager to return to the ranks of the elite after four seasons that didn’t quite live up to former coach Mack Brown’s expectations, have struggled out of the gate due to equal parts suspension and injury to key players. Coach Charlie Strong made it clear earlier this week that he would not bring suspended players back before they’ve served out their sentence, as Brian Davis chronicled earlier this week in the Austin American-Statesman.

“There’s no timeline on the amount of games and when they will be returning,” Strong said in a Dallas Morning News piece by Stefan Scrafield . “The reason why those guys are out is we have core values and they broke a core value. They will not be back Saturday.”

UCLA’s sluggish start may mean the Bruins are poised to put all the pieces together. Quarterback Brett Hundley’s a Heisman candidate. The offense has playmakers. The defense scored three touchdowns against Virginia. But it also may mean the Bruins haven’t found themselves yet, something Texas could – must – take advantage of, writes Cedric Golden in the Austin American-Statesman.

“On the surface, this has the makings of a classic trap game for UCLA: No. 12 vs. an unranked team, a Heisman contender vs. a sophomore in his first road start, a 2-0 team vs. a 1-1 coming off an embarrassing loss,” he wrote.

UCLA’s had trouble protecting Hundley, while Texas has had no trouble getting to opposing quarterbacks, registering 10 in the first two games. Clearly the defense that played the first 30 minutes against BYU has to double its effort, but if that happens and sophomore quarterback Tyrone Swoopes can support that effort with points…

“Swoopes needs primo field position to make this upset happen, and if the Horns figure out a way to contain Hundley — who isn’t as much of a running threat as BYU’s Taysom Hill — then the upset bug could bite the Westwoodians,” Golden surmises.

While we won’t know how things will play out until Saturday, we do know what led to the four most recent lopsided games in the series, which include three blowouts by UCLA and one by Texas. The winning team has usually rushed for 200 yards, taken a huge early lead and won the turnover battle.

Texas won 49-20 in 2011, a game that a dozen or so current Longhorns participated in. Led by running back Malcolm Brown, the Longhorns bulled their way to 284 yards on the ground. Brown and Fozzy Whittaker had early touchdown runs to spark Texas to a 21-0 lead. Texas also won the turnover battle 4-2, including three early interceptions of Kevin Prince.

Defenisve starters Jordan Hicks, Quandre Diggs, Cedric Reed, Desmond Jackson and Mykelle Thompson all played in that game, so they at least know what it feels like to beat the Bruins.

UCLA’s wins in 2010, 1998 and 1997 followed similar trends. The Bruins opened up leads of 27-3 (2010), 35-3 (1998) and 45-0 (1997) in their wins, averaging 222 yards on the ground and winning the turnover battle by 14-3, including an 8-0 margin in the 1997 Rout 66 game.

Sometimes football can be a simple game. Start fast. Run the ball. Protect the ball. A winning formula Strong hopes his team can learn and execute, quickly.

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