What is Steve Sarkisian’s first must-win game?

In a perfect world, a college football coach will meet all goals every season: win every game, claim a conference title, make it to the College Football Playoff, roll to the national championship and plan the parade. For good measure, dominate the all-conference teams, get a few players on the All-America teams and a slew of NFL Draft picks.

Mission(s) accomplished. Time to ask for a contract extension.

In perhaps the most blatant understatement ever written here: that’s easier said than done.

If Steve Sarkisian accomplishes that entire in his first season as the head coach of the Texas Longhorns, his encore might be running for governor of the state, or at least mayor of Austin.

This is not to suggest Sarkisian is not an exceptional coach with a brilliantly creative football mind — that might end up being his legacy at UT … and who knows? Maybe that list represents a legitimate glance into his future. 

But before he starts talking about a national championship, he has boxes on his to-do list. He needs to decide on a quarterback of the future, reload part of the offensive line and fill in some holes on defense. He must digest some bite-sized tasks before trying to consume the entire meal.

Beyond acquisition and development of talent, Sarkisian must show identifiable progress; the simplest to quantify are victories and losses. Again, everyone wants to win every time they take the field. But among the games on the Longhorns’ 2021 schedule, is any an absolute must-win?

Yes.

The Longhorns [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level3)]face TCU Oct. 2 … and a victory in Fort Worth will go a long way toward showing evidence of the progress Sark is expected to bring to Austin. 

Tagging the matchup with the Horned Frogs as a must-win contest is a little outside the norm for the program whose national perception is built, in part, based on how they do each season against the Oklahoma Sooners … and absolutely, the Horns and their fans would love a win over OU — this year and every year.

But before acknowledging the Red River Showdown as the most accurate barometer of success, the Longhorns have to beat the teams they should be able to handle every year. 

TCU is one of those teams, but the Frogs have given Texas fits in recent years. They have won six of the last seven games against the Longhorns, almost doubling Texas on the scoreboard; TCU has averaged almost double the points UT has put up during that span: 34.1-17.4. Sarkisian’s predecessor, Tom Herman, managed a less-than-glistening 1-3 record against the Horned Frogs.

This is not to suggest that any loss to TCU has been a program-crushing embarrassment. After all, the Frogs have been nationally ranked in three of those games.

But if Sarkisian is going to change the impression of the Texas program, and return the Longhorns to a spot among the nation’s elite programs, a loss to TCU is unacceptable. The Frogs muddled to a 6-4 record a year ago — their bout with Arkansas in the Mercari Texas Bowl was cancelled because of COVID-19 — and have holes to fill. 

Sarkisian and the Longhorns also have questions that need answers, but this game is as much about perception as it is about the final score. If the Horns are to reestablish that they are in a two-team race with Oklahoma in the Big 12, they need to beat the TCU’s of the world — ideally convincingly, but a win is a must. Iowa State is much improved and has some suggesting the conference is a three-team race. The Oklahoma State Cowboys would like included in the conversation, but lost a slew of key contributors since last season.

The pecking order in the state of Texas is in flux. A few years ago, an argument could be made that TCU and Baylor were the top programs in the state. Now, Texas and Texas A&M are clearly ahead of the rest. SMU is winning games and grabbing prized recruits away from marquee programs. TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech and Houston all want to be in the same conversation with the state’s marquee programs, and at times have shown indications that they should be.

The Longhorns will take a major step toward reestablishing itself as a heavyweight — within the state and the Big 12 — if they can roll in to Fort Worth in October and strut out with a convincing victory.

Then — and only then — turn the focus to bigger and better opponents.

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