A recipe for a championship requires efficient work from David Ash, plus improvement

The direct correlation between top quarterbacks and a top standing in the Big 12 conference is clear. The 2010 champion, Oklahoma, had the fifth-best in passer rating, Landry Jones. North division champ Nebraska had Taylor Martinez, second in the conference. The Big 12’s top passer, Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State, captained a team with an identical conference record as Oklahoma (6-2). The worst quarterback in the South division was Garrett Gilbert — his Longhorns finished last in the division. The worst in the North, Kansas’ Jordan Webb, also captained a cellar-dweller.

In 2011, the Longhorns didn’t have a player qualify for the list because Gilbert, Case McCoy and David Ash rotated snaps. But the best two passers [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)] in the conference were in charge of two of the top three teams.

A little different in 2012, when Ash finished fourth out of the 10 conference quarterbacks with a 153.3 rating — a hair behind Texas Tech’s Seth Doege (153.4). Coincidentally, this is also the season that saw Geno Smith finish with the conference’s highest passer rating. His team, West Virginia, was eighth in the Big 12. The conference’s fourth-worst passer to qualify for the list was Landry Jones, and his Sooners boast a share of the title.

Are we to interpret this to mean passer rating — a tried-and-true measure of efficiency — is suddenly meaningless? Of course not. The top passer in the nation was AJ McCarron of Alabama. His 30-touchdown, three-interception season was every bit as important to the Crimson Tide’s national title as its smothering defense.

In fact, every recent Big 12 and BCS Champion has benefited from phenomenal quarterbacking. Which brings us to Texas’ Ash. If the junior has a bad season, there’s no way the Longhorns win the Big 12 title. If he has a good season, they’ll certainly sit in the hunt. If he has a great season — the kind of season head coach Mack Brown suggested was coming — then Texas will likely win the conference.

“Vince (Young) and Colt (McCoy) won a lot of football games,” Brown said at last week’s Media Days. “That’s our expectation for David. David has grown up. He’s learned a whole lot.”

But what is greatness? Is it video-game stats or efficiency? Not since 2004 has the quarterback of the BCS champion also been among the top 10 nationally in yards passing (Matt Leinart). No, not Vince Young. Not Tim Tebow. Not Cam Newton. Instead, Vince completed 65 percent of his passes and threw 10 interceptions. Tebow in 2008 completed 64.4 percent of his passes and only threw four interceptions, an incredible number (in fact, Tebow never threw more than six in a single season). Newton completed 66 percent of his passes and was picked off seven times.

Last season Ash completed 214 of 318 passes for 2,699 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The two most important numbers here, ones that have a tangible impact on games*, are his completion percentage (67.3, third in the conference) and his interceptions (eight, eighth). Efficiency is key.

*Passing touchdowns are fun and a standard measure come award season, but the stat doesn’t give us a whole picture of the quarterback’s performance. A 49-yard pass that results in a one-yard run has the exact effect as a 50-yard pass for a touchdown. Ash’s line against West Virginia last season would have been better had the Longhorns let him throw inside the five-yard line — instead, Joe Bergeron scored on carries of two, two, one and four yards — but the outcome wouldn’t have changed. Got it?

The average completion percentage of the last five Big 12-winning quarterbacks is 68.2. The median interception total of that list is 12.

Same trick for the last five BCS-winning quarterbacks: 65.1 completion percentage and four interceptions.

We’ll have to wait until December to see how Ash is doing on hitting that watermark, but for now we can postulate. First, take his total attempts last season (318). On average, the Longhorns ran 68.5 plays per game, with less than half of those being passes, not including sacks or scrambles (30.6). They now say they want to run 80 plays per game. That figures at five more passes per game.

Extrapolated from his numbers last season, Ash would end up with this line: 2,996 yards, 23 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, completion percentage of 67.

That’s not taking into account improvement. It’s a very safe bet he’ll pad his yardage and touchdowns, not including a rise dependent on more attempts.

What’s being widely assumed is Ash will cut down on his interceptions. Here’s a player who threw an interception on 2.5 percent of his passes, the 53rd-best rate nationally. Way better than his mark as a freshman (4.6). But he’s going to be asked to throw more this year. Know what happens to quarterbacks who throw a ton? Ask North Carolina State’s Mike Glennon, who finished second nationally in attempts per game but 77th in INT %. Or Clemson’s Heisman candidate Tajh Boyd, who threw 427 passes and picked off 13 times. Of the 20 busiest quarterbacks in 2012, only six had interceptions in the single digits.

Ultimately, here’s what it all means …

With a defense that hasn’t proved it can stop anybody (72nd in scoring) or force turnovers (69th), calling for Ash to get into gunslinger mode isn’t the best idea. In fact, Texas’ shortcomings defensively — in terms of shutting down opponents for the long-haul or getting the ball back — might force the offensive staff to a more conservative game plan with Ash. The Longhorns can’t afford to get into many shootouts this season. They were 3-3 last season when the opponent scored over 40 points and luckily survived a 50-point outing by Baylor.

In the end, the kind of season Ash has will be dictated not by what he can do, but instead the fear of what his defense can’t. He’ll have more responsibility, but he won’t be asked to throw it more than 35 times a game, because each and every interception could prove costly.

A sacrifice for gaudy stats in exchange for better efficiency? Why, that’s a recipe for a championship.

[/s2If]
[s2If current_user_is_not(s2member_level2) OR current_user_is_not(s2member_level3) OR current_user_is_not(s2member_level5) OR current_user_is_not(s2member_level6)]

The rest of this article is available to Digital Subscribers only. Login or Subscribe to continue reading.
[/s2If]