Welcome to the Big 12 Playoffs

Despite the long-awaited college football playoffs one year away from its implementation, four teams find themselves in a virtual playoff for the Big 12 championship. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level2)] 

The remaining teams on Texas’ schedule, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor, are all in the hunt to claim the conference title. And a near-round robin between these four teams begins this weekend (the only exception being that Oklahoma State already defeated Texas Tech earlier in the season) when Texas faces off against Oklahoma State, and Baylor faces Texas Tech.

“This does have the feeling of a playoff atmosphere,” Mack Brown said. “High School playoffs start this weekend, just about every young man on our team is used to going into playoffs this weekend. And there’s a true playoff between Oklahoma State, Texas and Baylor in the last four weeks of the season.”

Staying true to the uncertainty that makes college athletics exciting, the possibilities and scenarios related to the Big 12 championship are complex to a point of near-infinite potential outcomes. However, we will do our best to break these scenarios down for you.

The teams Texas faces in the upcoming weeks are the only teams left in the Big 12 with mathematical possibilities of winning the Big 12 and representing the conference in the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor and Texas are the only remaining undefeated teams in conference play, and thus are the only teams who control their own destiny. If either team wins out, they will win the conference outright and play in the Fiesta Bowl. Thus, if both teams are undefeated come Dec. 7, the game between Texas and Baylor will be the de facto conference championship game. This is by far the most straight-forward way the championship shakes out.

Now, let’s say Texas, God forbid, loses to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State goes undefeated the rest of the way, but Texas manages to hand Baylor their only conference loss in the last game of the season. That would create a three-way tie for conference champion. Though there can be multiple winners of the Big 12 conference, thanks to the conference’s lack of divisions and a conference championship game (requiring at least 12 schools), it’s representing the conference in the Fiesta Bowl that holds all the prestige.

In a case like this, despite all teams being crowned conference champions, the tie-breaker to decide which team goes to the Fiesta Bowl is dependent upon who defeats who. If Texas enters the Baylor game with one loss, let’s say to Texas Tech, yet Baylor is undefeated, but Texas defeats Baylor, Texas would go to the Fiesta Bowl since they hold the tie break against Baylor. Confusing, I know.

However, if Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State all have one conference loss against one another, the above tie-break becomes irrelevant and the team with the highest BCS ranking will represent the conference (it’s a sure bet Texas will not come out on top if such a tie break were to occur). A similar circumstance happened in 2008 when Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech all had one loss against one another, but Oklahoma was given the tie break because of their higher BCS ranking.

Oklahoma State has two possible paths to the Fiesta Bowl, and both require them winning the remainder of their games. The scenario mentioned above is still a possibility (assuming they have a higher BCS ranking than Texas and Baylor), and if Baylor defeats Texas in the final game of the season, the Cowboys will own the tie break over the Bears.

Texas Tech’s chances, on the other hand, rely on a single, complex algorithm that requires many pieces to fall into place. First, Texas Tech must win their final two games against Baylor and Texas. Furthermore, Texas must defeat Oklahoma State but lose to Baylor, Oklahoma State must lose to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma must lose to either Iowa State or Kansas State, and Baylor must lose to TCU.

Though it’s doubtful Texas Tech will play in Glendale, Arizona on New Year’s Day, this could very well be one of those common curveballs college football enjoys throwing fans this late in the year.

Like a true playoff, the Longhorns control their own destiny. Win, and Texas is Fiesta Bowl bound. Lose, and the hounds of the presses will attack the Longhorns for yet another Alamo Bowl appearance. Unfortunately, this is the toughest three-game stretch the Longhorns have faced since 2008. Then again, the Longhorns are also on their longest winning streak since the Colt McCoy era. The Longhorns just have to do what they’ve been doing … win.

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