We’re Going Bowling: Texas Longhorns Bowl Projections

Now that the dust has settled and prognosticators have a clearer idea what team will go where this postseason, we can finally project Texas’ postseason destination. Well, sort of.

After Texas’ bid to win the conference championship fell short, it’s at least clear that Texas will not be going to a BCS bowl. However, where Texas ends up depends on the teams other bowls take.

Texas will anxiously await the BCS lineup, which will ultimately determine the Longhorns’ destination, to see which bowl they will be playing in and who they will be playing against.

Valero Alamo Bowl

The Big 12 bowl pecking order is as follows: Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Holiday Bowl, and Texas Bowl. In most cases, the conference champion, Baylor, will go the Fiesta Bowl and the runner up will go the Cotton Bowl. However, the BCS at-large bids are a potential wrinkle in this otherwise straight-forward system.

After their victory over Oklahoma State, many prognosticators, including ESPN, project Oklahoma to sneak into the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Alabama.

Northern Illinois’ loss to Bowling Green was key to this possible permutation, opening up an additional at-large bid for a top 15 team. The Sugar Bowl will see Oklahoma, with its rabid fanbase and proximity to New Orleans, as an attractive choice. However, Oregon, who also sits at 10-2 and are currently ranked higher, would cry foul if this scenario were to play out.

If Oklahoma does garner a Sugar Bowl invite, it will have a major impact on the Longhorns’ bowl destination. Oklahoma State was likely Cotton Bowl bound regardless, as the Sooners played there last year and bowls don’t generally like to take the same team two years in a row. That being said, look for the Alamo Bowl to break this informal rule if Oklahoma goes to the Sugar Bowl.

There’s an obvious gap between Texas and the fifth-ranked team in the conference, Kansas State. Though the Alamo Bowl will have the right to take Kansas State over Texas, their horrid conference record and 7-5 overall record make the Wildcats an unattractive choice.

So, who will Texas play? If this scenario occurs, one must assume Oregon is left out of a BCS bowl and is thus relegated to the Alamo Bowl. Thus, Texas ends up playing one of the top teams in the nation in San Antonio.

Likelihood

50/50. It’s difficult to fathom the Sugar Bowl passing on a potential matchup between Alabama and Oregon, but this bowl has a history of making decisions based on dollar signs.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

If Oklahoma fails to garner an invite to the Sugar Bowl, the Sooners will fall to the Alamo Bowl and will likely play Arizona State (this is assuming Oregon takes their spot in the Sugar Bowl). This means Texas will fall to the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

Waiting will be a matchup against either Nebraska or Michigan. With the B1G likely sending two teams to BCS bowl games, the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl selects third after the Capital One Bowl and the Outback Bowl. Wisconsin and Iowa will likely receive the invites from those bowls, thus leaving Nebraska, Minnesota and Michigan still on the table.

Though, record wise, Nebraska is the obvious choice, Michigan is one of the most marketable brands in college football. There’s no doubt any bowl will be licking their chops at a chance to pair Michigan and Texas in a bowl. However, there is also some interest in reviving the Nebraska – Texas rivalry. Both teams hate one another and there’s no doubt Nebraska would love some revenge for losing their conference clout when Texas entered the Big 12.

Once again, bowls have a propensity for selecting teams based on marketability, leaving on-field matchups as a secondary concern. That being said, it will be interesting to see which team Buffalo Wild Wings selects from the B1G.

Likelihood

50/50. See above.